Advanced Micro Devices's (NASDAQ:AMD) stock is 68.8% higher in the past 12 months and has outperformed the overall US TECH market which is 3.1% higher in the same timeframe. This equates to a 65.7% greater return over the period which puts the stock as an outperformer vs other US TECH companies.
From 31 analysts that cover Advanced Micro Devices's stock, the average rating is 3.3. This is a weighted average of 5 strong buys, 6 buys, 15 holds, 4 sells, 1 strong sells. This is 0.2 lower than a month ago which gives this factor a tea-score of 2/5.
• Stock's New Products Mean Even More Market Share (InvestorPlace)
• Stock's Positive Catalysts Make it a Top Choice For Long-Term Portfolios (InvestorPlace)
• Long-Term Buy in (InvestorPlace)
Advanced Micro Devices insider's have net been buying stock over the past 12 months, in the previous month insiders have been net buying. In fact the buy to sell ratio in the past month has been 223.7% which is 222.7% higher than the last 12 months buy to sell ratio. This put's Advanced Micro Devices's Insiders in the top quintile vs their peers giving this factor a tea-score of 5/5.
For Advanced Micro Devices, currently 67.0% of stock (1 billion shares) is owned by Institutions, 32.2% (802 million shares) is owned by Individuals, and 0.8% (2 million shares) is owned by company insiders. The CEO has a holding of 0.02% which is equivalent to 40 thousand shares with a market value of $129 million. This factor has a tea-score of 4/5.
As of 31 July 2019, the short interest for Advanced Micro Devices has been 11.35% of the shares outstanding which is 1 trillion shares. This is more than 1 month ago which had 11.34% of the shares outstanding which is 1 trillion short interest in shares. This equals a tea-score of 1/5.
Advanced Micro Devices's revenue in the last 12 months ending 29 June 2019 is $5Bn. Advanced Micro Devices's average revenue growth for the last 4 years has been 5.1% which is currently lower than their comps of 6.2%.
Advanced Micro Devices's free cash flow yield is -0.7% and has shrunk from 4 years ago. The free cash flow yield for Advanced Micro Devices 1 year ago was -1.0% and 3 years ago it was -11.4%.
Advanced Micro Devices hasn't paid any dividends for the past 4 years.
Advanced Micro Devices's PE ratio is 172.3x. This is calculated from their EPS of $2.02 and price per share of $31.18. Advanced Micro Devices's PE ratio values the company cheaper than 100% of it's competitors giving this factor a tea-score of 5/5.
Advanced Micro Devices's PEG ratio is nanx. This is calculated from their PE ratio of 172.3x and their last 12 months growth rate of -0.698%. This is less attractive than their competitors so the tea-score for this factor is nan/5.
The PB ratio for Advanced Micro Devices is 17.8x. This is cheaper than their competitors who have an average PB ratio of 4.0x. The tea-score is 5/5.
Advanced Micro Devices's free cash flow yield is -0.7% which is ranked 5.0/5 when compared to its competitors. This is calculated from a free cash flow of - (as reported for the 12 months ending 29 June 2019) divided by its current market capitalisation of $33Bn. The average free cash flow yield across Advanced Micro Devices's comps is 8.1%.
Advanced Micro Devices's return on investment is 13.7%. This is more profitable than its competitors.
Advanced Micro Devices's current ratio is calculated by (current assets) / (current liabilities) which equals 2.1x. This less attractive than their competitors and also worse than recommended for a healthy company.
Advanced Micro Devices's debt to shareholder equity is 67.3%. This is worse than their competitors and also worse than advised for a well-managed balance sheet.
Advanced Micro Devices's has a poor overall ESG rating of nan/100. Their competitors have a score between nan and nan with the average at nan.
What is the 52 week high for Advanced Micro Devices stock quote?
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) hit a new 52-week high on 15 July 2019 at a price of $34.39 with 65,565,200 shares traded that day. This is 10.3% higher than than its current price of $31.18 and 106.5% higher than the 52-week low of $16.65 on 24 December 2018. Average daily volume traded has been 71 million shares over the past 3 months.
What is the highest price Advanced Micro Devices stock has ever been?
The all-time highs for Advanced Micro Devices stock were reached on 15 July 2019, 35 days ago at a price of $34.39. This equates to a market capitalisation of $33Bn. The highest price reached is 10.3% higher than the current price of $31.18 with a current market cap of $33Bn.
What is the beta of Advanced Micro Devices stock?
Advanced Micro Devices stock moves 3.2x the US TECH market average which makes its beta higher than the overall market.
What is the volatility of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock?
Advanced Micro Devices's stock has an annual volatility of 70.5% which is more volatile than the average US TECH market volatility of 20.8% which has made it a less safe stock to own in the past vs just owning the index for investors aiming for lower portfolio volatility.
What have Advanced Micro Devices's share buybacks been over the past year?
Advanced Micro Devices is currently running a share-buyback program and in the past year alone the company has repurchased 104 million of shares outstanding at a total expense of $23Trn. In the same time frame the share price has moved 68.8% higher which is an outperformance of 65.7% vs the overall market. Advanced Micro Devices still has $420Trn of cash remaining on their balance sheet.
Who owns the most Advanced Micro Devices stock?
Barry White is the largest individual shareholder in Advanced Micro Devices with 1 billion shares. He is an independent director of Advanced Micro Devices. The largest institutional holder is T-Rowe and they own 10.3% of the issue size with 100 million shares. T-Rowe have been net buying shares over the last 12 months as they own 1 million more shares than a year ago.
When did Advanced Micro Devices beat earnings expectations in the last 4 years?
In the past 4 quarters Advanced Micro Devices has had 3 earnings beat's and 1 earnings miss's. The average earnings beat has been 12.1% and the average earnings miss has been 8.2%.
When is Advanced Micro Devices's next earnings date and what are the expectations?
Advanced Micro Devices is set to report earnings on 30 July 2019 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending June 2019. Based on 14 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $2.12. Recent analyst revisions have been positive implying a potential EPS of $2.24.
What is Advanced Micro Devices's upcoming earnings report expectations?
The earnings expectations for Advanced Micro Devices's upcoming report on 30 July 2019 are from 14 analysts with an average EPS of $2.12. The lowest analyst rating is $2.01, the highest is $2.84. The most recent earnings revisions have been positive with a most recent estimate of $2.24.
What is Advanced Micro Devices's earnings per share (EPS)?
Advanced Micro Devices's latest earnings per share (EPS) was reported as $2.02 on 30 April 2019 for fiscal quarter ending March 2019. This is 11.0% higher than 12 months ago when they reported EPS of $1.82
What is Advanced Micro Devices's dividend growth rate?
What is Advanced Micro Devices's dividend yield?
What is Advanced Micro Devices's previous and next dividend date?
AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) stock may be expensive -- but it's also cheap. If you ask a financial analyst how cheap it is, she'll reply with a similarly unpleasant expression: dilution.
So what exactly is AMD? A complex, multibillion-dollar supplier of chips that sell mostly to smartphone and computer makers. It's a popular chipmaker, with 4.6% of the overall chip market, but it's getting left behind by Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). It reported lower revenue in the last quarter than it did in the same quarter of last year. Yet the company continues to feel the heat from Wall Street.
This week, Alan Abelson, the self-proclaimed "King of New York Street," called the stock an "interesting investment." That much may be true. But is it an investment worth buying?
By that I mean one that includes both gains and losses. Pro forma profits are just one component of long-term financial health; AMD's earnings, in other words, aren't enough to fill up a portfolio -- and they certainly aren't enough to fill up a retirement portfolio. Although AMD has moved in and out of the black in recent years, the long-term outlook is extremely uncertain, and I won't argue with Abelson's point that "a stock's P/E ratio doesn't necessarily mean much; the price gains that come from it represent the extra value that shareholders gained at the moment the stock went up -- not what the stock will do in the future."
In any case, I find Abelson's description of AMD's prospects somewhat misleading. It's true that the company is likely to lose money in the next few quarters, on a pro forma basis. But AMD isn't planning to give away the store to smartphone and computer manufacturers. It's working to advance its chips for other uses, so investors can't realistically expect to earn substantial profits from the company's core business in the near future. Which raises another question: If you've got a bet on AMD's competitors and can't be bothered to play the long game, where should you put your money?
And that brings us to our question: Is the price AMD's stock worth paying? I think it probably is, but we'll have to wait and see.
The stock, which is on fire, has tripled over the past year. But the company has just reported a 44% drop in revenue. And this was after the previous quarter's 46% drop. Meanwhile, the stock pays a 1.25% dividend -- less than would be expected if the company had a lot of cash on hand.
So the question is whether we're paying too much, and whether our risk is reasonable. To assess the former, we can compare how much AMD's revenues would increase if its chip sales increased at the same rate that they did between 2009 and 2013. But to assess the latter, we need to see how much AMD's market share would increase if its business improved.
As a mid-size chip company, it could probably increase its sales by earning more money from being in the phone and computer industry. But how long until major smartphone and computer makers end up relying on AMD for everything? Until they turn to Intel, Nvidia, or the other chipmakers?
We simply don't know. Is AMD cheap enough for you to bet on? And if not, where do you put your money?
This article first appeared in the fall issue of The New York Times Magazine.
The article "Got $20,000?" originally appeared on the NYT magazine website and was published on Seeking Alpha.
To my mind, AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) has actually performed OK recently. It looks like it will show modest growth this year, and there are signs that the ongoing push in computing toward a virtual reality world could work in its favor.
AMD has made more progress lately in its long-term transition from a business that depended mainly on PCs and servers to one that's more concentrated on its rising supercomputing market. The only real "challenge" to this long-term trend is competition from Intel (NASDAQ:INTC). Yet Intel may be forced to slow its CPUs for coming years, because it recently announced plans to shift to a new type of chip for cloud applications.
There's been a pattern here, and it's not promising for AMD investors. In recent years, even as its share price has zoomed upward, the company has missed earnings estimates every quarter. Even today, the market continues to seem to hold out hope that margins could improve and somehow halt the stock's downward trend.
That's a bit like assuming that, in the long run, prosperity will reach people despite the risk that many remain locked out of the economic benefits. But maybe all hope is not lost. If Intel eventually switches from x86 to an entirely new class of chip, just as Apple shifted from PowerPC to Intel, then maybe AMD is all the more likely to make a comeback. The fact that it missed earnings estimates yet again this quarter doesn't do it any favors.
One big question mark hanging over AMD is whether it can maintain the impressive revenue growth and margin improvements of the last few years. Sales growth slowed a bit in Q4 2018, while margins rose to a remarkable 39.7% -- from a previous 38.7%. With much of its competition likely to revert to mature PC/server models once demand slows for full-powered personal computers, we may well see further increases in production costs, which threatens to depress margins.
To my mind, what's more important right now is whether Intel is prepared to make the transition to a new type of chip. That switch would hit Intel where it hurt -- in the wallet. There's no guarantee that a combination of capital spending to produce what is likely to be the new standard and low-cost financing will work, or that the demand for new systems will come in sufficient numbers to compensate for the new supply.
It should be noted that Intel is not just a PC-chip manufacturer, of course. This year, it also plans to release a new generation of chips for servers, a market that has also seen amazing growth over the last few years. Whether this trend will slow down as more memory capacities are used will determine whether Intel can continue to do better than AMD as the computing market matures.
In sum, the stock market is justified in paying up for AMD, but so far its expectations about AMD's prospects have been misplaced.
One theory of economic crisis is that once speculative bubbles burst, people tend to focus on the things that were going right: rents, the real estate market, investments in education. People don't notice that it looks a lot more like the end of the century than the decade, and you get very few sales of farms or wineries.
But when, not a few years after the crash, things like corporate profits and stock prices crash, you have a burst of social interest in thinking about the things that weren't going right, starting with those things that went in the opposite direction. And for a while, the top of the business media's masthead belongs to experts on the housing bubble, just as the anchors in the early '90s were on the stock market bubble.
Back then, corporate profits were rising to all-time highs; the housing market, crushed by the recession, was in the process of mounting a big recovery. The recovery in stock prices and profits was later supposed to come sooner than the housing rebound, which happened in the middle of the decade. Obviously, it didn't.
Anyway, we now have a big stock market crash, which itself is followed by, we're told, the end of the financial world. Or, at least, the end of a huge bubble.
There are a couple of good arguments in favor of believing the latter, and one of them is that last week's stock market crash was fundamentally different from the boom of the last 10 years, and also represented a massive reversal of the financialization of the economy.
But don't buy into it yet. Have a look at the dramatic price movement of the company Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), which you can find here. The stock has fallen more than 65% since peaking at $64.00 back in June 2018.
What is different about AMD? It has made a tremendous turn for the better under the leadership of Lisa Su, and now is on the verge of generating very significant free cash flow.
The story of Andrew Barr, or rather the story about what might have been of Andrew Barr (through his net worth and other sources) is in the news these days. Like the story of the man who stole $24 million of his late father's money, we should not confuse his alleged crime with the fundamental bankruptcy of his character. But whether he's convicted or not, Barr is in the spotlight for the wrong reasons: he's a promoter of, and promoter of everything we hate about the markets and the mainstream press.
Why? Well, for one thing, his story moves in lockstep with all the many, many people who worry about the dangers of crypto-currency investing and are looking for help explaining what it all means. If you're a knowledgeable commentator writing on crypto-currency, Andrew Barr's recent brief isn't just cause for alarm; it's a call to arms. The other night there was a CBS News broadcast about crypto-currency that used Barr's case and repeated it -- which in turn pushed a counter-cyclical narrative about the crash in crypto-currency exchange prices.
In one sense, Andrew Barr is the hero of the crypto-currency narrative, the embodiment of every cautionary tale that's been published or tweeted since the Bitcoin bubble burst. According to this narrative, cryptocurrency was all just a hoax designed to steal the money of gullible investors. And because of the supposedly devious way in which Bitcoin was constructed, the price crashes we've seen in recent months were just the first step in a far more sinister process. That's based on the fact that as crypto-currency prices rose, significant numbers of individuals and investors looked to convert their holdings to actual dollars and then convert those dollars back into some kind of paper that actually represented their real, bitcoin-based currency. In theory this would have been very expensive. In practice it's turned out to be extremely cheap.
But consider that one analogy - there are many better ones!
Yes, it's true that cryptocurrencies were priced on a proportionate price of their promised utility. But is any kind of utility going to work when the people who care about it need to be able to drop their phones in Starbucks to buy a latte? Or buy tampons online at Jet.com? Or apply for a loan at the neighborhood Fidelity? Or send a text message about which amount of margarine to buy when all of the current fillings are sold out? Such utility requires complex interactions that don't quite work as assumed. In fact, unless, to rephrase, except for the very small handful of people who are significant enough to care about the problems Bitcoin solves, crypto-currency may never work as most people expect.
And that is why the collapse of crypto-currency is not really good news. It's good news if your goal is to stop people from wasting their money on Bitcoin by inventing imaginary currencies that don't work as promised - at least until it can be shown that, as with other fantasy currencies, crypto-currency will eventually succeed in solving many of the world's real problems. It's bad news if, as with Bitcoin, you want to build an entire industry based on some as-yet unrealized technology that needs to be born.
But that, alas, is the irony of Andrew Barr and crypto-currency: it wasn't cryptocurrency itself that made Barr into such a villain. It was his promotion of a fictional character named Michael Merrill, who is the only character in the Roger Stone "tell-all" to talk about the nature of crypto-currency. If you go to your local Bitcoin virtual currency exchange and ask for a copy of Merrill's writings, you can buy them for pennies on the dollar.
Andrew Barr is hardly alone. We've been hearing so much about crypto-currency that it's easy to forget that there are lots of other coin-connected people out there. Oh, they are not as successful as Barr or Stone. They don't have the tabloid appeal, or the New York contacts, or the Hollywood connections. But they're not bad guys either - they just talk mostly about the things they believe in, and for which they have a totally natural interest. They are barely in the news. But they have some influence.
It's one of the fastest growing companies in the world, but Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) still lags the stock market. And that's the problem: Every year investors seem to think of reasons to buy in. But this year, they're still holding back.
That's the other way of saying that things are tough for AMD. The PC market is down, and AMD is especially vulnerable. PC margins are getting squeezed, and AMD is also contending with cheaper, low-cost PC chips from rivals Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Huawei. That competition is only getting more intense, because Intel's chips are now built using Taiwanese factories, and AMD doesn't have a license to use Intel's. That leaves no reason for the market to look kindly on the idea that AMD might be a winner.
But there are other signs that AMD may be a winner, even if the market doesn't yet recognize it.
For starters, the product it is selling isn't a niche product. If you read through its marketing materials, you'll see a strong emphasis on chips that go into mainstream PCs, from desktops to notebooks. So that downturn in the PC market isn't really cutting into AMD's base. Maybe it's shrinking a bit, but not so much that they can't catch up.
And maybe AMD's management is smart, even though their stock has trailed the broader market. They've controlled costs, and have never cut back product R&D. As a result, they've really improved productivity (for an extended period) while not losing any money, and they've improved their profitability during the downturn. That's good news, because gross margins are still under pressure, and that's one of the better ways to compensate for a hit in revenue. As soon as they get past the bottom of the PC cycle, it'll be easier for them to raise prices than to cut them down (as is always their most popular strategy).
This suggests that AMD is at a very early stage of its recovery. It's been getting some useful new products out and if it keeps holding the line on R&D, it should have plenty of ammunition to grow again -- and maybe even overtake Intel.
Even the stock price. It looks to me like AMD could end up a profitable force of nature in a year or two. Its revenue trajectory looks very strong and it still has lots of headroom for improvement. Over time, if it keeps improving its margins, it could be much more profitable than Intel. And in a few years it will be able to generate plenty of cash, thanks to its ungated cash flows, which are still far outstripping its investment needs.
There are plenty of risks, of course: Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) seems to be knocking some huge market share away from AMD. If that competition isn't resolved, AMD could find itself facing very poor market conditions. Other risks: AMD could be caught with too much inventory, which would be a big problem if it was unable to sell that inventory when the PC cycle turns up again. Its deep discounting of its Kaveri chips late last year -- which may well have been an effort to clear out old inventory -- suggests that AMD may be leaning on discounts in its strategy to squeeze margin. And then there's this whole new big competition from Nvidia that looks to be duking it out at the higher end of the PC market.
Still, AMD's prospects don't seem to reflect any obvious crises, but rather their own execution. That could change at any time, and right now, it seems to be going along just fine.
There's a compelling case for owning the stock right now, even if you don't want to invest as an income investor. As I have been saying for a while, it's pretty much a one-of-a-kind kind of company -- the only way to play a unique industry like AMD is to own shares, because you never know how long your holding period will be. So my suggestions of buy-and-hold plays are basically limited to stocks that don't have that exclusion. The only examples I can think of are AMD and General Electric (NYSE:GE).
If you're a value investor, however, there's not much to like about AMD -- particularly not its dividend, since that was cut four years ago. And if you're a growth investor, it's a hard sell. It doesn't look like AMD is setting the world on fire, but if it is, you may want to make a few moves in its direction. In any case, since these sorts of stocks tend to lag the market, it may be a good time to keep this one on your radar.